Economy in U.S. Expanded at a 5.7% Annual Pace January-29-10

U.S. Economy: Growth Jumps 5.7%, Fastest Pace in Six Years Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy expanded in the fourth quarter at the fastest pace in six years as factories cranked up assembly lines, indicating the recovery may be strong enough to be weaned from government support.

The 5.7 percent increase in gross domestic product at an annual rate reported by the Commerce Department in Washington today exceeded the 4.8 percent median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Separate reports showed consumer sentiment and a barometer of business activity rose more than forecast in January.

The dollar rallied as the data signaled the momentum generated by the world’s largest economy last quarter will carry into the new year. Rising investment in equipment and software is boosting sales at companies including Intel Corp. and may help bring the jobless rate down from close to a 26-year high as employers add staff to meet demand.

“We are getting on to something that is pretty sustainable,” said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, who correctly forecast the gain in GDP. “Both consumers and businesses are beginning to increase spending. To get validation, we need to see a return in hiring, which we think we are going to get over the next few months.”

Consumer spending, which comprises about 70 percent of the economy, rose at a 2 percent pace following a 2.8 percent increase in the previous three months. Economists projected a 1.8 percent gain, according to the survey median. Efforts to rebuild depleted inventories contributed 3.4 percentage points to GDP, the most in two decades.

Dollar Gains

The dollar strengthened 0.7 percent to $1.3867 per euro. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.2 percent to 1,082.33 at 12:10 p.m. in New York after gaining as much as 1.1 percent.

For all of 2009, the economy shrank 2.4 percent, the worst single-year performance since 1946. Household purchases dropped 0.6 percent last year, the biggest decrease since 1974.

Intel, the world’s largest chipmaker, posted its biggest quarterly revenue in more than a year last quarter, a sign the computer industry has emerged from last year’s global recession.

“My expectation for 2010 is that we’re going to see robust unit growth,” Chief Financial Officer Stacy Smith said in an interview this month. “The consumer segments of the market will stay pretty strong, and I do believe we’re going to see a resurgence in PC client sales.”

Purchases of equipment and software increased at a 13 percent pace in the fourth quarter, the most since 2006, today’s Commerce Department report showed. The gain helped offset a 15 percent drop in commercial construction, leaving total business investment up 2.9 percent over the past three months.

‘Positive News’

White House economic adviser Christina Romer said today’s GDP report is “the most positive news to date” on the economy.

Romer, chairman of President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, said that while economic growth is a “necessary first step for job growth” the government’s “focus must remain on getting Americans back to work.”

Obama this week said job creation will be the “number one focus in 2010.” Speaking during his first State of the Union address, Obama called on Congress to deliver a new jobs bill to his desk.

Payrolls fell by 85,000 last month after a 4,000 gain in November that was the first increase in almost two years. The U.S. has lost 7.2 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007, the most of any slowdown in the post-World War II era. The jobless rate held at 10 percent in December.

Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve this week repeated a pledge to keep interest rates low for “an extended period” to bring down unemployment while also raising its assessment of the economy and repeating a decision to end purchases of $1.25 trillion of mortgage debt by March 31. Policy makers said business investment “appears to be picking up.”

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke was confirmed for a second four-year term yesterday by the Senate with record opposition as some lawmakers criticized the central bank for doing more to help Wall Street than average Americans.

A Labor Department report today showed wages and benefits rose 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter, capping their smallest annual increase on record.

Gains in production last quarter stemmed the slide in inventories. Stockpiles dropped at a $33.5 billion annual pace following a $139.2 billion decline the previous three months. Inventories declined at a record $160.2 billion pace in the second quarter.

Business Barometer

The expansion is carrying into the new year, a report from the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. indicated today. The group said its business barometer climbed to 61.5, the highest level since November 2005, from 58.7 last month. Readings greater than 50 signal expansion.

A gauge of consumer confidence climbed in January to the highest level in two years. The Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment rose to 74.4 from December’s 72.5.

In other areas of the economy, today’s GDP report showed a smaller trade gap contributed 0.5 percentage point to fourth- quarter growth, while government spending was little changed, dropping at a 0.2 percent pace.

Residential construction climbed at a 5.7 percent rate last quarter after expanding at a 19 percent pace in the previous three months.

Inflation held below the Fed’s long-term forecast. The central bank’s preferred price gauge, which is tied to consumer spending and strips out food and energy costs, rose at a 1.4 percent annual pace following a 1.2 percent increase in the prior quarter.

The GDP price gauge climbed at a 0.6 percent pace, less than the 1.3 percent median forecast of economists surveyed.

Today’s GDP report is the first for the quarter and will be revised in February and March as more information becomes available.

The Fed is Buying $1.25 Trillion of FNM and FRE

As part of its quantitative easing, the Fed is buying $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities issued by housing-finance companies owned by the Federal Government (Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE) and Ginnie Mae). In addition, the Fed bought $300 billion of Treasury securities from March through September 2009 and it is presently buying $175 billion of corporate debt issued by Fannie, Freddie and the Federal Home Loan Banks. Total investment will be $1.725 trillion.

Consumer Credit in U.S. Drops Record $17.5 Billion in November

Consumer Credit in U.S. Drops Record $17.5 Billion in November

Consumer credit in the U.S. dropped a record $17.5 billion in November as unemployment close to a 26- year high discouraged borrowing and banks limited access to loans.

The slump in credit to $2.46 trillion was more than anticipated and followed a revised $4.2 billion drop in October, Federal Reserve figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a decrease of $5 billion. The figures track credit card debt and non-revolving loans, such as those to buy autos.

The U.S. unexpectedly lost 85,000 jobs in December,

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US and Foreign Auto Makers Sales 2009 Ford Chart

Ford Motor Co., Chrysler Group LLC, General Motors Co., Honda Motor Co. Nissan Motor Co., and Toyota Motor Corp. saw sharp declines for the year, but all said they had momentum to start 2010

Ford Motor's December sales leaped an adjusted 23.3 percent, far outpacing industry forecasts for the U.S. automaker, while sales at General Motors declined 12.8 percent, slightly worse than expected.

Sales of smaller, cheaper vehicles, however, helped drive gains for some manufacturers. Hyundai continued its surge with an 8-percent yearly gain, while its low-cost Kia brand reported 2009 sales gains of nearly 10 percent and a 44-percent gain in December.

Japanese automaker Subaru, which reported a 15 percent sales gain for the year, called 2009 an unqualified success

For the year, GM sales were off 33 percent from 2008, while December sales fell 9 percent.

Chrysler sold only 931,000 vehicles for the year, its worst performance since 1962. The Auburn Hills, Mich., automaker saw sales drop 36 percent for the year but down only 4 percent in December, far better than the double-digit drops the company reported earlier in the year.

Honda's sales were off 22 percent for the year but up 20 percent for December, while Nissan was up 18 percent for the month but down 19 percent for the year. Toyota sales were up a whopping 32 percent in December but down just over 20 percent for the year.

At Chrysler, December sales rose 36 percent over November, showing signs of some progress at showrooms but also helped by less-profitable sales to fleets such a rental companies and municipalities.

Ford Motor Co. said full-year sales declined 15 percent, but the company said it posted its first full-year gain in U.S. market share since 1995. It also reported a 33 percent increase in December sales thanks to strong demand for midsize cars like the Ford Fusion, whose sales rose 83 percent. The Ford Escape crossover, meanwhile, rose 75 percent.

Nissan's increase in December came from higher sales of its Versa compact car. Subaru, famous for small all-wheel-drive cars and sport utility vehicles, said 2009 was its best year ever for sales and market share.

The auto industry underwent a radical transformation in 2009, one of the most turmoil-filled years in its more than 100-year history.

Chrysler and General Motors, which both filed for bankruptcy protection after nearly collapsing, are still suffering as they struggle to revive sales and pay back huge government loans. Ford has been a relative bright spot.

Total U.S. auto sales, reported later Tuesday, are expected to drop to levels not seen for three decades. Joblessness climbed over 10 percent and buyers stayed away from showrooms, worried that automakers like GM and Chrysler might not survive. The last time sales were so low was in 1982, when 10.5 million cars sold during another bad recession.
F - Ford Motor Co
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